A Study on the Impact of Urbanization Level on Carbon Emissions Based on the STIRPAT Model: A Case Study of Five Major Urban Agglomerations in Northern China

With the acceleration of urbanization, city clusters of different levels have emerged. They play a significant role in the process of carbon emissions. Based on the improved STIRPAT model and using the five most important city clusters in northern China as the research object, this study investigates carbon emissions (carbon emissions refer to CO2 emissions) from 2005 to 2021 and the urbanization factors that affect carbon emissions. The study found that energy urbanization has the most significant positive impact on carbon emissions from the overall perspective, while population urbanization has the most substantial negative effect. The total emissions of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban cluster far exceeding those of the other four clusters. The factor with the least impact on carbon emissions in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei city cluster, the Central Plains city cluster, and the Guanzhong Plain city cluster is energy urbanization. The impact of technological urbanization factors can be positive or negative, the role of spatial urbanization factors is not significant. The northern city clusters should start with transforming energy structure, promote industrial upgrading through innovation, encourage green production and consumption, increase the use of efficient scientific and technological products and services, and promote the development of new urbanization.