永久冻土
湿地
环境科学
全球变暖
碳循环
甲烷
气候变化
温室气体
碳纤维
地球系统科学
耦合模型比对项目
大气科学
土壤碳
自然(考古学)
固碳
气候模式
地球科学
二氧化碳
生态学
生态系统
土壤科学
地质学
土壤水分
复合数
生物
古生物学
复合材料
材料科学
作者
Edward Comyn‐Platt,Garry Hayman,Chris Huntingford,Sarah Chadburn,Eleanor Burke,Anna Harper,William Collins,Christopher Webber,Tom Powell,Peter M. Cox,Nicola Gedney,Stephen Sitch
标识
DOI:10.1038/s41561-018-0174-9
摘要
Global methane emissions from natural wetlands and carbon release from permafrost thaw have a positive feedback on climate, yet are not represented in most state-of-the-art climate models. Furthermore, a fraction of the thawed permafrost carbon is released as methane, enhancing the combined feedback strength. We present simulations with an inverted intermediate complexity climate model, which follows prescribed global warming pathways to stabilization at 1.5 or 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100, and which incorporates a state-of-the-art global land surface model with updated descriptions of wetland and permafrost carbon release. We demonstrate that the climate feedbacks from those two processes are substantial. Specifically, permissible anthropogenic fossil fuel CO2 emission budgets are reduced by 9–15% (25–38 GtC) for stabilization at 1.5 °C, and 6–10% (33–52 GtC) for 2.0 °C stabilization. In our simulations these feedback processes respond more quickly at temperatures below 1.5 °C, and the differences between the 1.5 and 2 °C targets are disproportionately small. This key finding holds for transient emission pathways to 2100 and does not account for longer-term implications of these feedback processes. We conclude that natural feedback processes from wetlands and permafrost must be considered in assessments of transient emission pathways to limit global warming. Climate feedbacks associated with wetland methane emissions and permafrost-thaw carbon release substantially reduce available carbon budgets to achieve temperature targets, suggest simulations with a climate–land-surface model system.
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