Physics-based predictions of the month-by-month summer western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone

Abstract This study identified the distinct predictors of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC) in June, July, and August and revealed their independent influencing mechanisms on the formation of the summer WNPAC in each corresponding month. For the June WNPAC (AC_Jun), the North Atlantic warming in April–May (NAW) induces subsequently enhanced convection over the Indian Ocean and suppresses the convection over the tropical central Pacific, leading to AC_Jun via the Gill-type response. Meanwhile, the warming tendency over the western North Pacific from February to April, which reflects the slow decay of El Niño, results in AC_Jun through Indian Ocean warming. For the July WNPAC (AC_Jul), the cooling tendency from April to June over the central and eastern tropical Pacific is the sole predictor, which results in AC_Jul through the wind–evaporation–SST feedback. For the August WNPAC (AC_Aug), the tropical Atlantic warming in June and July (TAW) and the Bering Strait sea ice concentration melting from April to May (BSSM) are the two predictors. While TAW has a similar influence on AC_Aug with that of NAW on AC_Jun, BSSM makes for AC_Aug by strengthening the westerly jet and subsequently atmosphere–ocean coupling over the North Pacific. Using these predictors, three physics-based empirical models (PEMs) for the seasonal prediction of AC_Jun, AC_Jul, and AC_Aug are conducted, which all outperform the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System (CFS), thus shedding light on improving the seasonal prediction of the East Asian summer climate.