Diagnostic and prognostic value of ECG-predicted hypertension-mediated left ventricular hypertrophy using machine learning

Abstract Background Four hypertension-mediated left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) phenotypes have been reported using cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR): normal LV, LV remodeling, eccentric and concentric LVH, with varying prognostic implications. The electrocardiogram (ECG) is routinely used to detect LVH, however its capacity to differentiate between LVH phenotypes is unknown. This study aimed to classify hypertension-mediated LVH from the ECG using machine learning (ML) and test for associations of ECG-predicted phenotypes with incident cardiovascular outcomes. Methods ECG biomarkers were extracted from the 12-lead ECG of 20,439 hypertensives in UK Biobank (UKB). Classification models integrating ECG and clinical variables were built using logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM) and random forest. The models were trained in 80% of the participants, and the remaining 20% formed the test set. External validation was sought in 877 hypertensives from the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP). In the UKB test set, we tested for associations between ECG-predicted LVH phenotypes and incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and heart failure. Results Among UKB participants 19,408 had normal LV, 758 LV remodeling, 181 eccentric and 92 concentric LVH. Classification performance of the three models was comparable, with SVM having a slightly superior performance (accuracy 0.79, sensitivity 0.59, specificity 0.87, AUC 0.69) and similar results observed in SHIP. There was superior prediction of eccentric LVH in both cohorts. In the UKB test set, ECG-predicted eccentric LVH was associated with heart failure (HR 3.42, CI 1.06-9.86). Conclusions ECG-based ML classifiers represent a potentially accessible screening strategy for the early detection of hypertension-mediated LVH phenotypes. Graphical abstract