Research on the Sustainable Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Global Transportation Carbon Emissions: Evidence from a Panel of 140 Countries, 1971–2018

The rapid development of the global transportation industry has led to increased carbon dioxide emissions, intensifying the pressure to reduce these emissions. On the basis of constructing a global carbon emission analysis framework for the transportation industry, this study used panel data on carbon emissions from the transportation industry in 140 countries or regions for a long-term time series from 1971 to 2018. The standard deviation ellipse, Gini coefficient, and Moran’s I index were used to characterize the spatial patterns of carbon emissions in the global transportation industry. The factors influencing carbon emissions from the global transportation industry were analyzed using quantile regression. The main findings are as follows: (1) From the distribution pattern, the total carbon emissions from the global transportation industry showed a significant upward trend, and the spatial polarization characteristics were particularly significant. (2) The Gini coefficient of global carbon emissions from the transportation industry showed a significant downward trend, characterizing a more balanced spatial distribution. (3) From the perspective of correlation patterns, the spatial distribution of carbon emissions from the global transportation industry was positively correlated. (4) Regarding influencing factors, population size had a significant role in promoting carbon emissions from the transportation industry, and the difference was not apparent. The influence of affluence on carbon emissions was basically in line with the characteristics of the Kuznets curve, technological advances had a significant negative influence on carbon emissions, and participation in the global value chain had a significant influence on carbon emissions from countries or regions with high carbon emissions. In conclusion, it is necessary to enhance international cooperation on carbon emission management in the global transportation industry and adopt differentiated policy measures. For instance, we should accelerate the construction of a multimodal transport system, increase the promotion and support for new energy heavy-duty trucks, implement policies such as priority road rights for new energy heavy-duty trucks and reduce tolls on expressways, and deepen the integration of transportation and energy.