Land use zoning planning based on ecosystem services can improve regional comprehensive benefits

Integrating ecosystem services (ESs) into land use planning is critical for achieving socio-ecological sustainability, yet systematic methodologies remain underdeveloped. This study proposes a novel framework that couples ES supply–demand analysis, trade-off assessment, and scenario simulation to optimize land use zoning of the Yellow River Delta, China. Results reveal significant spatial mismatches in the supply and demand of four ESs: coastal areas exhibit high demand for soil retention and habitat maintenance, while inland regions require enhanced provisioning and carbon sequestration services. Based on ES trade-offs and bundles, the study area was partitioned into five management zones: natural evolution, strategic development, and three ecologically vulnerable zones addressing habitat fragmentation, carbon sequestration, and soil erosion. Partition-specific scenario simulations for 2030 demonstrated a 1.03 million CNY ES value increase over global uniform simulations, highlighting superior comprehensive benefits. The simulation revealed significant land use changes include rapid expansion of construction land along the southern Yellow River bank (68.43 km2) and notable increases of grassland (11.96 km2) and reed swamp (19.85 km2) within nature reserves, aligning with developmental needs. These findings validate the scientific rigor of the proposed framework, underscore the efficacy of zoning-based planning in maximizing multi-dimensional benefits, and provide methodological references and evidence-based guidance for land use optimization in comparable regions.