How can the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration achieve the carbon peak target: Based on the perspective of an optimal stable economic growth path

The Pearl River Delta (PRD) is a region with a high concentration of energy consumption and carbon emissions, and the conflict between its economic development and environmental protection is relatively prominent. This study starts from the ideal path of economic growth and proposes a framework for carbon emission prediction under the optimal economic growth path of the PRD through cross-analysis of low-carbon economics analysis and artificial intelligence prediction. Firstly, the generalized Divisia index method (GDIM) was used to decompose carbon emissions to quantify the contribution rate of each influencing factor. Then, the genetic algorithm (GA) was introduced to optimize the BP neural network so as to construct a GA-BP combined prediction model. Finally, the optimal economic growth rate models under different scenarios were constructed and accurately predicted carbon peak in the PRD under stable economic growth. The results show that under the optimal economic growth path, the carbon peak in the PRD in the scenario with carbon constraints will be reached in 2029 while in the scenario without carbon constraints will only start to appear around 2035. The achievement of the carbon peak target in the PRD still requires insisting on stringent carbon emission reduction measures.