The practical clinical role of machine learning models with different algorithms in predicting prostate cancer local recurrence after radical prostatectomy

Abstract Background The detection of local recurrence for prostate cancer (PCa) patients following radical prostatectomy (RP) is challenging and can influence the treatment plan. Our aim was to construct and verify machine learning models with three different algorithms based on post-operative mpMRI for predicting local recurrence of PCa after RP and explore their potential clinical value compared with the Prostate Imaging for Recurrence Reporting (PI-RR) score of expert-level radiologists. Methods A total of 176 patients were retrospectively enrolled and randomly divided into training ( n = 123) and testing ( n = 53) sets. The PI-RR assessments were performed by two expert-level radiologists with access to the operative histopathological and pre-surgical clinical results. The radiomics models to predict local recurrence were built by utilizing three different algorithms (i.e., support vector machine [SVM], linear discriminant analysis [LDA], and logistic regression-least absolute shrinkage and selection operator [LR-LASSO]). The combined model integrating radiomics features and PI-RR score was developed using the most effective classifier. The classification performances of the proposed models were assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results There were no significant differences between the training and testing sets concerning age, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), Gleason score, T-stage, seminal vesicle invasion (SVI), perineural invasion (PNI), and positive surgical margins (PSM). The radiomics model based on LR-LASSO exhibited superior performance than other radiomics models, with an AUC of 0.858 in the testing set; the PI-RR yielded an AUC of 0.833, and there was no significant difference between the best radiomics model and the PI-RR score. The combined model achieved the best predictive performance with an AUC of 0.924, and a significant difference was observed between the combined model and PI-RR score. Conclusions Our radiomics model is an effective tool to predict PCa local recurrence after RP. By integrating radiomics features with the PI-RR score, our combined model exhibited significantly better predictive performance of local recurrence than expert-level radiologists’ PI-RR assessment.