Spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Kunming based on PLUS and InVEST models

Carbon storage is a critical ecosystem service provided by terrestrial environmental systems that can effectively reduce regional carbon emissions and is critical for achieving carbon neutrality and carbon peak. We conducted a study in Kunming and analyzed the land utilization data for 2000, 2010, and 2020. We assessed the features of land utilization conversion and forecasted land utilization under three development patterns in 2030 on the basis of the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. We used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model to estimate changes in carbon storage trends under three development scenarios in 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2030 and the impact of socioeconomic and natural factors on carbon storage. The results of the study indicated that (1) carbon storage is intimately associated with land utilization practices. Carbon storage in Kunming in 2000, 2010, and 2020 was 1.146 × 108 t, 1.139 × 108 t, and 1.120 × 108 t, respectively. During the 20 years, forest land decreased by 142.28 km