概率逻辑
脆弱性(计算)
地震风险
地震动
大都市区
趋同(经济学)
不确定度量化
脆弱性
风险分析(工程)
计算机科学
地质学
地震学
地理
经济
业务
人工智能
机器学习
计算机安全
物理化学
考古
化学
经济增长
标识
DOI:10.1080/13632469.2016.1138172
摘要
The assessment of human or economic losses due to single events (scenario) may effectively support decision makers in the development of important risk mitigation actions. The study presented herein sheds light on several problems and limitations in the current practice of scenario loss modeling, such as: the number of simulations required to achieve convergence; epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the ground motion prediction and vulnerability models; and consideration of the earthquake rupture geometry. These issues are investigated using the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon (Portugal), and it has been observed that distinct assumptions in the loss modeling can lead to considerably different results. The findings of this study are also pertinent for probabilistic seismic risk analyses in which a large number of stochastically generated events are employed to assess probabilistic losses.
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