Crop switching can enhance environmental sustainability and farmer incomes in China

Achieving food-system sustainability is a multidimensional challenge. In China, a doubling of crop production since 1990 has compromised other dimensions of sustainability^1,2. Although the country is promoting various interventions to enhance production efficiency and reduce environmental impacts³, there is little understanding of whether crop switching can achieve more sustainable cropping systems and whether coordinated action is needed to avoid tradeoffs. Here we combine high-resolution data on crop-specific yields, harvested areas, environmental footprints and farmer incomes to first quantify the current state of crop-production sustainability. Under varying levels of inter-ministerial and central coordination, we perform spatial optimizations that redistribute crops to meet a suite of agricultural sustainable development targets. With a siloed approach-in which each government ministry seeks to improve a single sustainability outcome in isolation-crop switching could realize large individual benefits but produce tradeoffs for other dimensions and between regions. In cases of central coordination-in which tradeoffs are prevented-we find marked co-benefits for environmental-impact reductions (blue water (-4.5% to -18.5%), green water (-4.4% to -9.5%), greenhouse gases (GHGs) (-1.7% to -7.7%), fertilizers (-5.2% to -10.9%), pesticides (-4.3% to -10.8%)) and increased farmer incomes (+2.9% to +7.5%). These outcomes of centrally coordinated crop switching can contribute substantially (23-40% across dimensions) towards China's 2030 agricultural sustainable development targets and potentially produce global resource savings. This integrated approach can inform feasible targeted agricultural interventions that achieve sustainability co-benefits across several dimensions.