Assessing the dynamics of sustainability for social-ecological systems based on the adaptive cycle framework: A case study in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

Abstract Evaluating the dynamics of sustainability for social-ecological systems (SESs) is fundamental for guaranteeing human well-being and achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs). Here, we develop a method to quantify and analyze the dynamics of sustainability for SESs based on the adaptive cycle framework and catastrophe theory. This method can effectively identify the important time points and areas that affect the dynamics of sustainability and is flexible for assessing various SESs. We applied this method to a typical SES, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTHUA). The results showed that the BTHUA experienced an overall rise in sustainability from 2000 to 2017. It has exhibited two adaptive cycles, among which 2006 and 2012 marked the release phases (i.e., the decrease in sustainability). The decline in the environmental subsystem and the increase in pollution from resource-based cities were major factors affecting the dynamics of sustainability in the BTHUA. Therefore, implementing place-based measures is encouraged to promote the sustainability of this urban agglomeration.