Exploring pathways to deep de-carbonization and the associated environmental impact in China’s ammonia industry

Abstract China is the largest producer of synthetic ammonia, accounting for one-third of the world’s total production. Ammonia is mainly used to produce fertilizer and is also considered as a potential fuel and new energy carrier for the future. Concomitantly, the ammonia industry is the largest energy consumer and CO 2 emitter in China’s chemical industry. In this study, we developed the MESSAGEix-ammonia model with detailed process descriptions to evaluate the energy-saving and emission reduction potential that can be generated by energy efficiency (EE) improvement, as well as the transition path and emission characteristics in the context of deep emission reduction. Results show that the cost-effective EE measures implemented under the EE scenario could reduce fresh water, fuel coal, and electricity consumptions by 7%, 25%, and 16%, as well as reduce CO 2 , PM 2.5 , SO 2 , and NOx emissions by 33%, 24%, 24%, and 24%, respectively, by 2060. Regarding the exploration of the deep de-carbonization path, carbon capture and storage technology (CCS) increases the CO 2 reduction potential to 62%, but it requires additional electricity. Meanwhile, electrolysis technology not only saves additional fresh water and fuel coal, but also reduces CO 2 , PM 2.5 , SO 2 , and NOx by 80%, 84%, 86%, and 84%, respectively. Furthermore, the integration of electrolysis technology and CCS can bring 98% carbon emission reduction, which is close to net-zero emission status. With the development of renewable electricity, sufficient, clean, and affordable electricity can be provided for electrolysis devices. Our recommendation to policy makers is that electrolysis of water to produce ammonia using renewable electricity is a feasible deep de-carbonization pathway.