Cadmium accumulation in tropical island paddy soils: From environment and health risk assessment to model prediction

Cultivated soil quality is crucial because it directly affects food safety and human health, and rice is of primary concern because of its centrality to global food networks. However, a detailed understanding of cadmium (Cd) geochemical cycling in paddy soils is complicated by the multiple influencing factors present in many rice-growing areas that overlap with industrial centers. This study analyzed the pollution characteristics and health risks of Cd in paddy soils across Hainan Island and identified key influencing factors based on multi-source environmental data and prediction models. Approximately 27.07% of the soil samples exceeded the risk control standard screening value for Cd in China, posing an uncontaminated to moderate contamination risk. Cd concentration and exposure duration contributed the most to non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks to children, teens, and adults through ingestion. Among the nine prediction models tested, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) exhibited the best performance for Cd prediction with soil properties having the highest importance, followed by climatic variables and topographic attributes. In summary, XGBoost reliably predicted the soil Cd concentrations on tropical islands. Further research should incorporate additional soil properties and environmental variables for more accurate predictions and to comprehensively identify their driving factors and corresponding contribution rates.