An artificial intelligence-based prognostic prediction model for hemorrhagic stroke

Purpose The prognosis following a hemorrhagic stroke is usually extremely poor. Rating scales have been developed to predict the outcomes of patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). To date, however, the prognostic prediction models have not included the full range of relevant imaging features. We constructed a clinic-imaging fusion model based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) to predict the short-term prognosis of ICH patients. Materials and methods This was a multi-center retrospective study, which included 1,990 patients with ICH. Two CNN-based deep learning models were constructed to predict the neurofunctional outcomes at discharge; these were validated using a nested 5-fold cross-validation approach. The models’ predictive efficiency was compared with the original ICH scale and the ICH grading scale. Poor neurological outcome was defined as a Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) score of 1–3. Results The training and test sets included 1,599 and 391 patients, respectively. For the test set, the clinic-imaging fusion model had the highest area under the curve (AUC = 0.903), followed by the imaging-based model (AUC = 0.886), the ICH scale (AUC = 0.777), and finally the ICH grading scale (AUC = 0.747). Conclusion The CNN prognostic prediction model based on neuroimaging features was more effective than the ICH scales in predicting the neurological outcomes of ICH patients at discharge. The CNN model’s predictive efficiency slightly improved when clinical data were included.