环境科学
融雪
水流
全球变暖
气候变化
高原(数学)
大洪水
河岸带
水文学(农业)
冰川
气候学
自然地理学
雪
流域
地理
地质学
生态学
海洋学
数学分析
气象学
考古
栖息地
岩土工程
生物
地图学
数学
作者
Tong Cui,Yukun Li,Long Yang,Yi Nan,Kunbiao Li,Mahmut Tudaji,Hongchang Hu,Di Long,Muhammad Shahid,Ammara Mubeen,Zhihua He,Bin Yong,Hui Lu,Chao Li,Guangheng Ni,Chunhong Hu,Fuqiang Tian
标识
DOI:10.1038/s41467-023-36804-6
摘要
Previous projections show consistent increases in river flows of Asian Water Towers under future climate change. Here we find non-monotonic changes in river flows for seven major rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau at the warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 3.0 °C based on an observation-constrained hydrological model. The annual mean streamflow for seven rivers at 1.5 °C warming level decreases by 0.1-3.2% relative to the present-day climate condition, and increases by 1.5-12% at 3.0 °C warming level. The shifting river flows for the Yellow, Yangtze, Brahmaputra, and Ganges are mostly influenced by projected increases in rainfall, but those for the Mekong, Salween, and Indus are dictated by the relative changes in rainfall, snowmelt and glacier melt. Reduced river flows in a moderately warmed climate threaten water security in riparian countries, while elevated flood risks are expected with further temperature increases over the Tibetan Plateau.
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