Lifetime risk of cardiovascular-renal disease in type 2 diabetes: a population-based study in 473399 individuals

Abstract Background Lifetime risks of cardiovascular (CV) and renal diseases are high, particularly in type 2 diabetes (T2D), but rarely studied together, and relative disease contributions are unknown. Knowledge of lifetime risk of cardiovascular-renal disease (CVRD) will better reflect disease burden in T2D. Purpose To investigate the lifetime risks (LTRs) of composite and individual components of major adverse reno-cardiovascular events, MARCE in T2D patients. Method In a population-based cohort study using national electronic health records, we studied 473399 individuals aged 45–99 years with T2D in England 2007–2018. The LTR of composite and individual components of MARCE (including CV death and CVRD: heart failure, HF; chronic kidney disease stage 3 and above, CKD; myocardial infarction, MI; stroke or peripheral artery disease, PAD) were estimated. LTRs by baseline CVRD comorbidity status were compared with individuals free from CVRD at baseline, accounting for the competing risk of death. Results Among T2D patients aged ≥45 years, the LTR of MARCE was 80% for individuals free from CVRD at baseline. LTR of MARCE was 97%, 93%, 98%, 89% and 91% for individuals with specific CVRD comorbidities for HF, CKD, MI, stroke and PAD, respectively at baseline. Within the CVRD-free cohort, LTR of CKD was highest at 54%, followed by CV death (41%), HF (29%), stroke (20%), MI (19%) and PAD (9%). Compared to CVRD-free, HF, MI and CKD at baseline were associated with the highest LTR of MARCE and its component diseases (Table). Conclusion The lifetime risk of CV disease and CKD in T2D patients is estimated to be over 60% and 50% respectively (1–3). When considered together, the LTR of MARCE is 80% in CVRD-free T2D patients, while nearly all those with T2D and HF will develop MARCE over their lifetime. Of the individual components of MARCE, LTR of CKD and HF were the highest among CVRD-free T2D patients. Preventive measures in T2D patients should be a priority in clinical practice to mitigate the burden of these complications. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Private company. Main funding source(s): AstraZeneca