Spatial path and determinants of carbon transfer in the process of inter provincial industrial transfer in China

Globally, China ranks first in terms of total carbon dioxide emission, one-third of which is caused by carbon transfer, which is a prerequisite for carbon reduction. Studies have ignored the path comparison and influencing factors of industrial transfer and carbon transfer. This study employed the multiregional input–output (MRIO) model to investigate the evolution trend of carbon transfer in 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017. The study compares the consistency of the path of interprovincial industrial transfer and carbon transfer. The impact of environmental regulation, industrial structure, energy intensity, and urbanization on carbon transfer is investigated using the multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model. The results demonstrate that the path of industrial transfer and carbon transfer is similar but not wholly coupled, indicating that industrial transfer is the key factor that causes carbon transfer. Environmental regulation has a negative impact on carbon transfer, and the impact on the eastern region is higher than that on the central and western regions. Urbanization has a negative impact on carbon transfer, and the degree of impact gradually decreases. The industrial structure has a significant and positive influence on carbon transfer, and the influence coefficient gradually increases. In 2002, energy intensity played a negative role in carbon transfer; however, it had a positive effect on carbon transfer in 2007, 2012, and 2017.