Potential hydropower contribution to mitigate climate risk and build resilience in Africa

Hydropower will play an essential role in meeting the growing energy needs in Africa but will be affected by climate change. We assess future annual usable capacity and variability of supply for 87 existing hydropower plants in Africa on the basis of a multimodel ensemble of 21 global climate models and two emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP 4.5 and 8.5). We estimate near-future, mid-century and end-of-the-century impacts and assess the potential for connections within and across power pools to reduce changes in usable capacity and variability. We evaluate the potential synergies between hydropower, wind and solar resources in each power pool. We find that regional interconnection could mitigate some of the climate impacts on hydropower. Furthermore, variable renewable energy, especially solar power, could potentially compensate for usable hydropower capacity losses. Our work contributes to a better understanding of the climate-induced impacts on hydropower resources in Africa and potential risk mitigation opportunities.