Methodologic Issues Specific to Prediction Model Development and Evaluation

Developing and evaluating statistical prediction models is challenging, and many pitfalls can arise. This article identifies what the authors feel are some common methodological concerns that may be encountered. We describe each problem and make suggestions on how to address them. The hope is that this manuscript will result in higher quality publications of statistical prediction models. Developing and evaluating statistical prediction models is challenging, and many pitfalls can arise. This article identifies what the authors feel are some common methodological concerns that may be encountered. We describe each problem and make suggestions on how to address them. The hope is that this manuscript will result in higher quality publications of statistical prediction models.