A causal machine-learning framework for studying policy impact on air pollution: A case-study in COVID-19 lockdowns

Abstract When studying the impact of policy interventions or natural experiments on air pollution, such as new environmental policies or the opening or closing of an industrial facility, careful statistical analysis is needed to separate causal changes from other confounding factors. Using COVID-19 lockdowns as a case study, we present a comprehensive framework for estimating and validating causal changes from such perturbations. We propose using flexible machine learning–based comparative interrupted time series (CITS) models for estimating such a causal effect. We outline the assumptions required to identify causal effects, showing that many common methods rely on strong assumptions that are relaxed by machine learning models. For empirical validation, we also propose a simple diagnostic criterion, guarding against false effects in baseline years when there was no intervention. The framework is applied to study the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on atmospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels in the eastern United States. The machine learning approaches guard against false effects better than common methods and suggest decreases in NO2 levels in 4 US cities (Boston, Massachusetts; New York, New York; Baltimore, Maryland; and Washington, DC) during the pandemic lockdowns. The study showcases the importance of our validation framework in selecting a suitable method and the utility of a machine learning–based CITS model for studying causal changes in air pollution time series. This article is part of a Special Collection on Environmental Epidemiology.