Assessing Stroke and Mortality Risk in Heart Failure: The CHA2DS2-VASc Score’s Prognostic Value in Patients With and Without Atrial Fibrillation: A Meta-Analysis

The CHA2DS2-VASc [congestive heart failure, hypertension, age (≥75 years earns 2 points, 65–74 years earns 1 point), diabetes mellitus, prior stroke, transient ischemic attack, or thromboembolism (2 points), vascular disease (eg, prior myocardial infarction, peripheral artery disease), and female sex category] score has demonstrated potential as a prognostic indicator for adverse outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to assess the predictive accuracy of the CHA2DS2-VASc score in determining the occurrence of stroke and mortality in HF patients. We did a thorough search of electronic databases until December 2023. Included studies examined the correlation between the CHA2DS2-VASc score and the likelihood of stroke or death in patients with HF. The meta-analysis showed a substantial correlation between elevated CHA2DS2-VASc scores and heightened risks of both stroke and mortality in HF patients. Patients with CHA2DS2-VASc scores ≥4 had a greater stroke risk than those with scores <4 (odds ratio, 0.38, 95% confidence interval, 0.33–0.43, P < 0.00001). Similarly, patients with CHA2DS2-VASc scores ≥4 had a higher mortality risk (OR, 0.49, 95% confidence interval, 0.30–0.80, P = 0.05). The CHA2DS2-VASc score is a useful predictive tool for identifying HF patients who are at a high risk of both stroke and mortality. Additional investigation is necessary to confirm these findings and examine the incorporation of the CHA2DS2-VASc score into risk assessment algorithms for tailored patient management.