Long COVID Disability Burden in US Adults: YLDs and NIH Funding Relative to Other Conditions

Abstract Background Long COVID (LC) is novel, debilitating and likely chronic. Yet, scant data exist about its disability burden to guide scientific research and public health planning. We estimated Long COVID’s non-fatal disease burden in US adults and its FY2024 actual: burden-commensurate research funding from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) relative to other conditions, and biological sex. Methods We present YLDs/100,000 for 70 NIH Research, Condition, and Disease Categories (RCDCs). Prevalence of disabling Long COVID was obtained from cross sectional surveys of representative samples of US adults, from September 2022 to August 2023. Disabling Long COVID was defined as incident symptoms persisting more than 3 months post-COVID, that significantly compromise daily activities. We calculated burden-commensurate funding for the top YLD conditions and for female vs. male dominant conditions. Findings Disabling Long COVID was reported by 1.5% (n= 10,401) of n=757,580 respondents: Compared to the overall sample, those with disabling LC disproportionately identify as female (64.4% vs. 51.4%) and experiencing disability (80.8% vs. 52.9%) anxiety (57.5% vs. 23.8%) and depression (51.3% vs.18.5%). It ranked in the top 25% of YLDs at 320/100,000, between Alzheimer’s (279.4/100,000) and asthma (355.7/100,000) but received just 10% of its actual: YLD-commensurate funding. Only 5 conditions received less actual: burden: commensurate funding, including Myalgic Encephalitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (<1%), another post-viral, female-dominant condition. Interpretation LC has debilitated 3.8 million (weighted frequency) US adults. Research funding for it, like other female dominant conditions, lags behind its disability burden. Research in Context Evidence before this study – We analyzed Long-COVID’s (LC) non-fatal disease burden in the US--represented by YLD (years lived with disability= prevalence x disability weight) -- and National Institutes of Health (NIH) research 2024 funding relative to other conditions. We searched PubMed through 11/28/2023 for Long COVID prevalence (US), and Long COVID disability and disease burden (not US-specific). The keywords “years lived with disability” + “COVID” yielded n= 38 articles (11/29/23); but most referenced “disability-adjusted life years” (DALYs) in other countries. Similarly, “disease burden” + Long COVID yielded 23 papers, but no US YLD data. See Supplement 1 for meta-analyses, systematic reviews and US studies of Long COVID prevalence and impact. We instead sourced YLD data from the US Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey (HPS) and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) /Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Long COVID Study Group. The HPS queries adults about Long COVID-related symptoms and their impact on daily activities. We applied the IHME/GBD’s estimated Long COVID disability weight of 0.21 and harmonized it with our LC case definition from the HPS data in consultation with IHME/GBD researchers. To harmonize IHME/GBD disability weights for non-LC diseases/conditions with the NIH’s terminology, we consulted with NIH staff. LC definition and measurement affects prevalence and burden estimates; our use of high-quality data sources and transparency in reporting how they were applied reduces the risk of biased assumptions. Added value of this study- Long COVID is a chronic debilitating condition. While there is ample research on COVID’s acute illness and loss of life, there are no population-based data on its disability burden. We provide that data. To guide scientific research and public health planning, we report YLDs associated with disabling Long COVID (i.e., symptoms significantly limit activity), and; compare it to other conditions’ YLDs, NIH funding, and female-vs. male-dominance. It ranked in the top 25% of YLDs at 320/100,000, between Alzheimer’s (279.4/100,000) and asthma (355.7/100,000) but received just 10% of its YLD-commensurate funding. Only 5 conditions received less burden-commensurate funding; 3/5 were female-dominant, including Myalgic Encephalitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (ME/CFS) at <1%, another post-viral condition that shares significant overlap with Long COVID. Overall, median funding/YLD was >= 5 times greater for male-vs. female-dominant conditions. Implications of all the available evidence -Nearly 4 million US adults (weighted frequency) live with disabling Long COVID. They disproportionately identify as female and as having a disability, anxiety and depression. Yet NIH funding for diagnostic and treatment research for Long COVID hasn’t kept pace with its disability burden.