生态系统服务
环境科学
河岸带
土地利用
累积效应
土地利用、土地利用的变化和林业
草原
植被恢复
固碳
土地管理
情景分析
土壤碳
地理
环境资源管理
业务
生态系统
持续性
中国
农业
可持续发展
自然资源经济学
生态学
土地复垦
土壤水分
土壤科学
二氧化碳
栖息地
考古
生物
财务
作者
Mingjie Shi,Hongqi Wu,Xin Fan,Hongtao Jia,Tong Dong,Panxing He,Muhammad Fahad Baqa,Pingan Jiang
出处
期刊:Sustainability
[MDPI AG]
日期:2021-02-02
卷期号:13 (3): 1577-1577
被引量:28
摘要
Environmental managers and policymakers increasingly discuss trade-offs between ecosystem services (ESs). However, few studies have used nonlinear models to provide scenario-specific land-use planning. This study determined the effects of different future land use/land cover (LULC) scenarios on ESs in the Yili River Valley, China, and analyzed the trade-offs and synergistic response characteristics. We simulated land-use changes in the Yili River Valley during 2020–2030 under three different scenarios using a patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model—business as usual (BAU), economic development (ED), and ecological conservation (EC). Subsequently, we evaluated the water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), soil retention (SR), and nutrient export (NE) ESs by combining the PLUS and integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST) models, thus exploring multiple trade-offs among these four ESs at a regional scale. For the BAU scenario, there are some synergistic effects between WY and SR in the Yili River Valley, in addition to significant trade-off effects between CS and NE. For the ED scenario, the rapid expansion of cropland and constructed land is at the expense of forested grassland, leading to a significant decline in ESs. For the EC scenario, the model predicted that the cumulative regional net future carbon storage, cumulative water retention, and cumulative soil conservation would all increase due to ecological engineering and the revegetation of riparian zones and that formerly steep agricultural land can be effective in improving ESs. Meanwhile, the trade-off effect would be significantly weakened between CS and NE. These results can inform decision makers on specific sites where ecological engineering is implemented. Our findings can enhance stakeholders’ understanding of the interactions between ESs indicators in different scenarios.
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