The Leicester Risk Assessment score for detecting undiagnosed Type 2 diabetes and impaired glucose regulation for use in a multiethnic UK setting

Diabet. Med. 27, 887–895 (2010) Abstract Aims Risk assessment scores identify those at high risk of impaired glucose regulation and Type 2 diabetes mellitus. To date no risk assessment scores that can be completed by a lay person have been developed and validated specifically for multiethnic populations in the UK. Methods We used data on 6186 subjects aged 40–75 years from a multiethnic UK screening study (73% white European, 22% South Asian). All participants were given a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test. We developed logistic regression models for predicting current impaired glucose regulation (impaired fasting glycaemia/impaired glucose tolerance) or Type 2 diabetes mellitus using data from anthropometric measurements and self‐reported questionnaires. Using the best‐fitting model, we developed the Leicester Risk Assessment score. We externally validated the score using data from 3171 subjects aged 40–75 years from a separate screening study. Results The components of the final model are age, ethnicity [white European vs. other (predominantly South Asian)], sex, first degree family history of diabetes, antihypertensive therapy or history of hypertension, waist circumference and body mass index. The score ranges from 0 to 47. Validating this model using the data from the second screening study gave an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 72% (95% confidence interval, 69–74%). A cut point of 16 had a sensitivity of 81% and a specificity of 45%. Conclusions The Leicester Risk Assessment score can be used to identify those at high risk of impaired glucose regulation and Type 2 diabetes mellitus in UK multiethnic populations. The score is simple (seven questions) and non‐invasive.