Evolutionary mechanism of green innovation behavior in construction enterprises: evidence from the construction industry

Purpose The green innovation behavior of construction enterprises is the key to reducing the construction industry's carbon emissions and realizing the green transformation of the construction industry. The purpose of this study is to reveal the evolutionary mechanism of green innovation behavior in construction enterprises. Design/methodology/approach This study is based on resource-based theory, Porter's hypothesis and signaling theory. First, a measurement model of the green innovation behavior of construction enterprises was constructed from three aspects: environmental regulation, enterprise resources and public opinion through hierarchical analysis. Then, the state values of the measurement model of green innovation behavior of construction enterprises were calculated through the time series data from 2011–2018. Finally, the Markov chain model was used to predict the evolutionary trend of green innovation behavior of construction enterprises, and the accuracy of the prediction effect of the Markov chain model was verified using the time series data of 2019. Findings The Markov chain model of green innovation behavior of construction enterprises constructed in this study has high accuracy. This model finds that the transition of the growth state of green innovation behavior in China's construction industry is fluid and predicts the evolution trend of the innovation behavior of construction enterprises. In the future, the green innovation behavior of construction enterprises has a probability of 70.17% to be in a continuous growth state and 40.27% to be in a rapid growth state. Originality/value Based on the Markov chain model of green innovation behavior of construction enterprises, this study finds that the transition of the growth state of green innovation behavior of construction enterprises in China has the characteristics of liquidity. In addition, it reveals the development process of the green innovation behavior of construction enterprises from 2011–2018 and predicts the evolution trend of the green innovation behavior of construction enterprises.