Seismic Hazard Analysis of China’s Mainland Based on a New Seismicity Model

Abstract Based on the seismic source model in the Fifth Generation Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map of China (FGSGMPZMC), a new seismic fault model, the new zonation of seismic risk areas (SRAs), and the estimation of seismicity rates for 2021–2030, this study constructed a new time-dependent seismic source model of China’s mainland, and used the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to calculate seismic hazard by selecting the ground motion models (GMMs) suitable for seismic sources in China. It also provided the probabilities of China’s mainland being affected by earthquakes of modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) VI, VII, VIII, IX, and ≥ X in 2021–2030. The spatial pattern of seismic hazards presented in this article is similar to the pattern of the FGSGMPZMC, but shows more details. The seismic hazards in this study are higher than those in the FGSGMPZMC in the SRAs and fault zones that can produce large earthquakes. This indicates that the seismic source model construction in this study is scientific and reasonable. There are certain similarities between the results in this study and those of Rong et al. (2020) and Feng et al. (2020), but also disparities for specific sites due to differences in seismic source models, seismicity parameters, and GMMs. The results of seismic hazard may serve as parameter input for future seismic risk assessments. The hazard results can also be used as a basis for the formulation of earthquake prevention and mitigation policies for China’s mainland.