Changes of Reference Evapotranspiration and Its Relationship to Dry/Wet Conditions Based on the Aridity Index in the Songnen Grassland, Northeast China

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) plays an important role in regional dry/wet conditions. Based on the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United (FAO) Penman-Monteith method and daily climate variables, ET0 was calculated for 21 stations in and around the Songnen Grassland, northeast China, during 1960–2014. The temporal and spatial variations of ET0 and precipitation (P) were analyzed in the annual, seasonal, and growing season (from April to October) time series using the Mann-Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, and linear regression coupled with a break trend analysis. A sensitivity analysis was used to detect the key climate parameter contributing to ET0 change. By linear regression analysis on the relationship between ET0, P, and the aridity index (AI), the role of ET0 in determining regional wet/dry conditions was analyzed. Results show a higher ET0 in the southwest and a lower ET0 in the northeast, but P was opposite to that of ET0. Evident decreasing trends of ET0 in the annual, seasonal, and growing season time series were detected in almost the entire region by the trend analysis methods. For the entire region, the decreasing trend of ET0 can be linked to the relative humidity and maximum air temperature. The positive contribution of increasing temperature to ET0 was offset by the effect of the significantly decreasing relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration at the 0.05 level during 1960–2014. In addition, the value of ET0 was higher in drought years and lower in wet years.