Spatial-temporal characteristics of carbon emission intensity in electricity generation and spatial spillover effects of driving factors across China's provinces

As China's largest source of carbon emissions, the power sector's transition to lower levels of carbon emission intensity is critical to achieving China's carbon emission (CE) reduction commitments. In this paper, the CE intensity of electricity generation (CEIE) in 30 provinces from 2000 to 2019 is calculated, and the temporal evolution and spatial distribution characteristics of CEIE are discussed. Then, the spatial spillover effect of each driving factor on CEIE is calculated using the spatial Durbin model. The CEIE reveals a first increasing and then decreasing trend, and the regional differences gradually decrease. Simultaneously, the CEIE has a significant positive spatial correlation, and the overall spatial distribution pattern is high in the northeast and low in the southwest of the country. Economic development and foreign trade both inhibit CEIE, while electricity consumption, research and development, unit operation level, and power structure all promote CEIE. Each driving factor's influence on regional CEIE exerts a spatial spillover effect. Among them, the spatial positive spillover effects of industrial structure and environmental protection investment are the most obvious, while the spatial spillover effects of other driving factors are not apparent. Furthermore, these findings provide practical insights into policy adjustments and the coordinated interregional development of low-carbon electricity.