Possible negative effects of earlier thaw onset and longer thaw duration on vegetation greenness over the Tibetan Plateau

• The Tibetan Plateau experienced overall vegetation greening in the past 20 years. • Longer growing season mainly resulted from earlier start of the growing season. • Earlier and longer soil thaw enhanced vegetation growth in relatively cold regions. • Longer thaw duration suppressed vegetation growth in water-limited regions. • Permafrost destabilization and complete thaw could lead to vegetation browning. The Tibetan Plateau (TP), also known as the world's Third Pole, is underlain by frozen ground and is highly sensitive to climate change. However, it remains unclear how the variations in soil freeze-thaw could affect vegetation dynamics across the TP. In this study, we adopted the latest datasets for vegetation, climate and soil freeze-thaw in the past two decades to explore the possible impacts of changes in soil freeze-thaw on vegetation greenness and phenology on the TP. According to the satellite-based observations, the TP showed an overall greening trend during 2001-2020, and the growing season length increased significantly at a rate of 3.6 days/10a, mainly contributed by the advances of the start of the growing season (2.7 days/10a). Based on ridge regression and partial correlation analysis, air temperature and precipitation were found to be the major dominant factors of vegetation dynamics on the TP, and precipitation played a dominant role in the relatively warm-dry southwestern TP where vegetation browning and spring phenology delays were observed. In the relatively cold regions, earlier soil thaw onset generally facilitated spring phenology, and longer soil thaw duration tended to increase the growing season soil moisture content, which could in turn enhance vegetation greenness. In the relatively warm regions, however, earlier thaw onset and longer thaw duration could possibly exacerbate the growing season water stress and limit vegetation growth. The negative impacts were more evident in the regions with unstable and completely degraded permafrost according to the results in the source region of Yellow and Yangtze rivers. Our findings highlight the spatially varying role of soil freeze-thaw changes in vegetation dynamics, which have important implications for the carbon budget of the TP in a warming future climate as frozen ground continues to degrade.