Radiation pneumonia predictive model for radiotherapy in esophageal carcinoma patients

Abstract Background The machine learning models with dose factors and the deep learning models with dose distribution matrix have been used to building lung toxics models for radiotherapy and achieve promising results. However, few studies have integrated clinical features into deep learning models. This study aimed to explore the role of three-dimension dose distribution and clinical features in predicting radiation pneumonitis (RP) in esophageal cancer patients after radiotherapy and designed a new hybrid deep learning network to predict the incidence of RP. Methods A total of 105 esophageal cancer patients previously treated with radiotherapy were enrolled in this study. The three-dimension (3D) dose distributions within the lung were extracted from the treatment planning system, converted into 3D matrixes and used as inputs to predict RP with ResNet. In total, 15 clinical factors were normalized and converted into one-dimension (1D) matrixes. A new prediction model (HybridNet) was then built based on a hybrid deep learning network, which combined 3D ResNet18 and 1D convolution layers. Machine learning-based prediction models, which use the traditional dosiomic factors with and without the clinical factors as inputs, were also constructed and their predictive performance compared with that of HybridNet using tenfold cross validation. Accuracy and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the model effect. DeLong test was used to compare the prediction results of the models. Results The deep learning-based model achieved superior prediction results compared with machine learning-based models. ResNet performed best in the group that only considered dose factors (accuracy, 0.78 ± 0.05; AUC, 0.82 ± 0.25), whereas HybridNet performed best in the group that considered both dose factors and clinical factors (accuracy, 0.85 ± 0.13; AUC, 0.91 ± 0.09). HybridNet had higher accuracy than that of Resnet ( p = 0.009). Conclusion Based on prediction results, the proposed HybridNet model could predict RP in esophageal cancer patients after radiotherapy with significantly higher accuracy, suggesting its potential as a useful tool for clinical decision-making. This study demonstrated that the information in dose distribution is worth further exploration, and combining multiple types of features contributes to predict radiotherapy response.