Association of Gestational Diabetes With Subsequent Long-Term Risk of Mortality

Importance Gestational diabetes has been associated with numerous chronic diseases. However, few studies have examined the association of gestational diabetes with long-term mortality risk. Objective To investigate the associations between gestational diabetes and long-term risks of total and cause-specific mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study analyzed participants of the Nurses’ Health Study II who were followed for 30 years (1989-2019). Participants included US female nurses aged 25 to 42 years who reported at least 1 pregnancy (≥6 months) at 18 years or older across their reproductive life span. Data were analyzed from May 1, 2022, to May 25, 2023. Exposure Gestational diabetes across the reproductive life span. Main Outcomes and Measures Hazard ratios (HRs with 95% CIs) for total and cause-specific mortality were estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression models. Results A total of 91 426 parous participants were included, with a mean (SD) age of 34.9 (4.7) years and a body mass index of 24.1 (4.7) at baseline. During a follow-up period of 2 609 753 person-years, 3937 deaths were documented, including 255 deaths from cardiovascular disease and 1397 from cancer. Participants with a history of gestational diabetes had a higher crude mortality rate than those without a history of gestational diabetes (1.74 vs 1.49 per 1000 person-years; absolute difference = 0.25 per 1000 person-years). The corresponding HR for total mortality was 1.28 (95% CI, 1.13-1.44), which did not materially change after additional adjustment for potential confounders and lifestyle factors during the reproductive life span (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.11-1.41). The association persisted regardless of the subsequent development of type 2 diabetes and was more robust among participants who adopted less healthy lifestyles; experienced gestational diabetes in 2 or more pregnancies (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 0.99-2.19); had gestational diabetes both in the initial and subsequent pregnancies (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.11-2.63); and concurrently reported hypertensive disorders in pregnancy (HR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.21-2.67), preterm birth (HR, 2.46; 95% CI, 1.66-3.64), or low birth weight (HR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.21-3.68). Cause-specific mortality analyses revealed that gestational diabetes was directly associated with the risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease (HR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.03-2.47). Additionally, gestational diabetes was inversely associated with cancer mortality (HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.59-0.98); however, it was only evident among participants who later developed type 2 diabetes. Conclusions and Relevance Results of this cohort study suggest that participants who reported a history of gestational diabetes exhibited a small but elevated risk of subsequent mortality over 30 years. The findings emphasize the importance of considering gestational diabetes as a critical factor in later-life mortality risk.