Identifying key monitoring areas for tree insect pest risks in China under climate change

Abstract Climate change can exacerbate pest population growth, posing significant threats to ecosystem functions and services, social development, and food security. Risk assessment is a valuable tool for effective pest management that identifies potential pest expansion and ecosystem dispersal patterns. We applied a habitat suitability model coupled with priority protection planning software to determine key monitoring areas (KMA) for tree insect pest risks under climate change and used forest ecoregions and nature reserves to assess the ecological risk of insect pest invasion. Finally, we collated the prevention and control measures for reducing future pest invasions. The KMA for tree insect pests in our current and future climate is mainly concentrated in eastern and southern China. However, with climate change, the KMA gradually expands from southeastern to northeastern China. In the current and future climate scenarios, ecoregions requiring high monitoring levels were restricted to the eastern and southern coastal areas of China, and nature reserves requiring the highest monitoring levels were mainly distributed in southeastern China. Tree insect pest invasion assessment using ecoregions and nature reserves identified that future climates increase the risk of pest invasions in forest ecoregions and nature reserves, especially in northeastern China. The increased risk and severity of tree insect pest invasions require implementing monitoring and preventative measures in these areas. We effectively assessed the pest invasion risks using forest ecoregions and nature reserves under climate change. Our assessments suggest that monitoring and early prevention should focus on southeastern and northeastern China.