Exploring the Role of AI and Teacher Competencies on Instructional Planning and Student Performance in an Outcome-Based Education System

The rapid integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in education has transformed traditional teaching methodologies, particularly within Outcome-Based Education (OBE), in higher education. Based on the Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge (TPACK) model and the OBE system, this present study investigates how teachers perceive AI applications, specifically ChatGPT, in enhancing instructional design and student performance. The research develops a new AI-based instructional planning model, incorporating AI ChatGPT capabilities, teacher competencies, and their direct and indirect effects on student outcomes. This study employs quantitative research design using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to validate the proposed model. Data were collected from 320 university teachers in Pakistan using a structured survey distributed through WhatsApp and email. Findings from the direct path analysis indicate that AI ChatGPT capabilities significantly enhance instructional planning (β = 0.33, p < 0.001) and directly impact student performance (β = 0.20, p < 0.001). Teacher competencies also play an important role in instructional planning (β = 0.37, p < 0.001) and student performance (β = 0.16, p = 0.020). The indirect path analysis reveals that instructional planning mediates the relationship between AI ChatGPT capabilities and student performance (β = 0.160, p < 0.001), as well as between teacher competencies and student performance (β = 0.180, p < 0.001). The R-square values indicate that instructional planning explains 41% of its variance, while student performance accounts for 56%. These findings provide theoretical contributions by extending AI adoption models in education and offer practical implications for integrating AI tools in teaching. This study emphasizes the need for professional development programs to enhance educators’ AI proficiency and suggests policy recommendations for AI-driven curriculum development.