Comprehensive Assessment of Environmental Emissions, Fate, and Risks of Veterinary Antibiotics in China: An Environmental Fate Modeling Approach

China is one of the major global consumers of veterinary antibiotics. Insufficient recognition of emissions and environmental contamination hamper global efforts to prevent antibiotic resistance development. This pioneering study combined empirical data and modeling approaches to predict total 2010-2020 emissions of 80 veterinary antibiotics ranging from 23,110 to 40,850 tonnes/year, after 36-50% antibiotic removal by manure treatment. Following an initial increase of 10% from 2010 to 2015, emissions declined thereafter by 43%. While 85% of emissions discharged into soils, approximately 56%, 23%, and 18% of environmental residue were ultimately distributed in soils, freshwaters, and seawaters under steady-state conditions. In 2020, 657 (319-1470) tonnes entered the ocean from inland freshwaters. Median ∑antibiotics concentrations were estimated at 4.7 × 103 ng/L in freshwaters and 2.9 ng/g in soils, with tetracyclines and sulfonamides as the predominant components. We identified 44 veterinary antibiotics potentially posing high risks of resistance development in freshwaters, with seven exhibiting high risks in >10% of Chinese freshwater areas. Tetracyclines were the category with the most antibiotics exhibiting elevated risks; however, sulfamethylthiazole demonstrated the highest individual compound risk. The Haihe River Basin displayed the highest susceptibility overall. The findings offer valuable support for control of veterinary antibiotic contamination in China.