Spatiotemporal evolution and the detection of key drivers in the resilience of cultivated land system in major grain‐producing regions of China

Abstract Evaluation and improvement of cultivated land system resilience (CLSR) play a significant role in the sustainable development of cultivated land. From the perspective of multifunction of cultivated land, this study revealed the spatiotemporal evolution of CLSR in China's major grain‐producing regions during 2000–2020 by catastrophe model based on a comprehensive evaluation system including production resilience (PR), ecological resilience (ER), and economic resilience (CR), and further identified the key drivers to find scientific paths to improve CLSR. The results demonstrated that the CLSR had significant spatiotemporal differences and stayed at a low level but showed a steady rise. In terms of spatial scope, the number of provinces with middle‐ and high‐grade resilience had increased from 0 to 10. As for time variation, the CLSR showed an upward trend, from 0.78 to 0.95. PR and CR were similar to CLSR, showing an increased tendency, while ER displayed the characteristics of first decreased and then increased. As for the key drivers, PR played a central role in the CLSR, the effect of CR on CLSR was weakened, while the ER was gradually strengthened. Specifically, the stability of grain production, effective irrigated area rate, agricultural pollution, and the contribution of agriculture to GDP were the key factors to CLSR. Hence, stabilizing cultivated land areas, controlling nongrain growing phenomena, strengthening agricultural infrastructure construction, promoting ecological restoration of cultivated land, and ensuring economic contribution of cultivated land were effective ways to improve CLSR.