Food production in China requires intensified measures to be consistent with national and provincial environmental boundaries

Meeting increasing food demands in an environmentally sustainable manner is a worldwide challenge. Applying life cycle analysis to different scenarios, we show that a 47–99% reduction in phosphorus emissions, nitrogen emissions, greenhouse gas emissions, bluewater consumption and cropland use is needed for China’s food production in 2030 to be within national and provincial environmental boundaries. Basic strategies like improving food production efficiency, optimizing fertilizer application, reducing food loss and waste and shifting diets are currently insufficient to keep environmental impacts within national boundaries—particularly those concerning nitrogen. However, intensifying these strategies and reallocating food production from the northern to the southern provinces could keep environmental impacts within both national and provincial boundaries. We conclude that the environmental sustainability of China’s food production requires radical and coordinated action by diverse stakeholders. To achieve sustainable food production in China in 2030, strategies such as optimizing fertilizer application, improving production efficiency, reducing food loss and waste and shifting dietary patterns must be combined inter-regionally, and food production reallocated from northern to southern China. Levers and barriers to strategy implementation are discussed here.