The Transmission Mechanism and Spatial Spillover Effect of Agricultural New Quality Productive Forces on Urban–Rural Integration: Evidence from China

Urban–rural integration (URI) plays a crucial role in advancing rural revitalization and the modernization of agriculture. Nevertheless, numerous nations encounter persistent obstacles, including inefficient resource mobility across urban–rural divides and uneven industrial distribution, while striving to foster such integration. Agricultural new quality productive forces (ANPFs) offer an innovation-led production framework fueled by advances in agricultural technology, allowing urban–rural integration (URI) through improved resource mobility between cities and rural regions. Utilizing panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2013–2022), this study employs a two-way fixed effects model, mediation analysis model, threshold regression model, and the spatial Durbin model to investigate the transmission mechanism and spatial spillover effect of agricultural new quality productive forces (ANPFs) on urban–rural integration (URI). The findings show the following: (1) Agricultural new quality productive forces (ANPFs) significantly influence urban–rural integration (URI). (2) The influence is significantly stronger in western China than in the eastern and central regions. (3) Industrial restructuring and upgrading (IND) function as a mediating influence in this connection. (4) The role of informatization (INF) has a dual-threshold effect. (5) Geographically, while these forces promote local integration, they may impede progress in nearby regions. This study provides new empirical insights into the factors that influence urban–rural integration (URI) and proposes policy solutions to promote sustainable regional development.