Extinction debt varies in two threatened Mediterranean-type woodland communities undergoing rapid urbanisation

Context Extinction debt, the time-delayed species loss response to fragmentation associated with habitat clearance, is a conservation concern for management of biological diversity globally. Extinction debt is well defined but difficult to measure owing to the long-term data needed to measure species loss, particularly for communities of long-lived species. Aims We aimed to estimate extinction debt for two adjacent threatened communities with contrasting soil fertility in south-western Australia: banksia and tuart woodlands. Further, we assessed what species functional traits are associated with extinction risk. Methods Using contemporary (2016) and historical (1992) data on vegetation richness, and patch characteristics dating back to the time of European colonisation (1829), we examined 60 woodland patches using three methods to detect and quantify extinction debt. Key results We found evidence of extinction debt in banksia woodland, but not in tuart woodland. We estimated the extinction debt for banksia woodlands as a future average loss of 28% or ~13 species per patch. Conclusions Our study demonstrated a delay of species loss consistent with extinction debt in one of two vegetation communities. Despite sharing species and traits, these vegetation communities have responded differently to landscape change over the same timescale and within the same landscape. Implications Understanding how vegetation communities, and functional trait types, respond to time-delayed impacts helps land managers to prioritise intervention efforts to pre-empt species decline and extinction through species conservation, and ecological restoration of remnant vegetation patches.