Prediction of the progression from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer’s disease using a radiomics-integrated model

This study aimed to build and validate a radiomics-integrated model with whole-brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to predict the progression of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD).357 patients with MCI were selected from the ADNI database, which is an open-source database for AD with multicentre cooperation, of which 154 progressed to AD during the 48-month follow-up period. Subjects were divided into a training and test group. For each patient, the baseline T1WI MR images were automatically segmented into white matter, gray matter and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and radiomics features were extracted from each tissue. Based on the data from the training group, a radiomics signature was built using logistic regression after dimensionality reduction. The radiomics signatures, in combination with the apolipoprotein E4 (APOE4) and baseline neuropsychological scales, were used to build an integrated model using machine learning. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and data of the test group were used to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy and reliability of the model, respectively. In addition, the clinical prognostic efficacy of the model was evaluated based on the time of progression from MCI to AD.Stepwise logistic regression analysis showed that the APOE4, clinical dementia rating, AD assessment scale, and radiomics signature were independent predictors of MCI progression to AD. The integrated model was constructed based on independent predictors using machine learning. The ROC curve showed that the accuracy of the model in the training and the test sets was 0.814 and 0.807, with a specificity of 0.671 and 0.738, and a sensitivity of 0.822 and 0.745, respectively. In addition, the model had the most significant diagnostic efficacy in predicting MCI progression to AD within 12 months, with an AUC of 0.814, sensitivity of 0.726, and specificity of 0.798.The integrated model based on whole-brain radiomics can accurately identify and predict the high-risk population of MCI patients who may progress to AD. Radiomics biomarkers are practical in the precursory stage of such disease.