Adaptation to Temperature Extremes in Chinese Agriculture, 1981 to 2010

Temporal evolution of extreme temperature effects on agriculture is important for understanding adaptation to climate change but has not been sufficiently studied. This study examines the time-varying impacts of extreme temperatures on Chinese agriculture over 1981 to 2010. We estimate a period-specific panel regression model using nationwide county-level agriculture production data combined with fine-scale meteorological data. There are two primary findings. First, crop yields have become more heat-resilient over time. The impact of a daily exposure to extreme temperatures on corn and soybean yields in the post-1996 period is 40% to 50% less than that in the pre-1996 period. Second, estimation of marginal adaptation effects of inputs points to irrigation as the central input for adaptation among the inputs that can be observed in our data. The expansion of irrigation coverage over time accounts for 25% to 30% of the decline in the extreme temperature impacts.