Markov Chain Modelling-Based Approach to Reserve Electric Vehicles in Parking Lots for Distribution System Energy Management

Integration of renewable energy resources in distribution networks with intermittent behaviour increases the challenge of power balance in transmission systems. To mitigate the undesired impacts, transmission operator involves distribution operators to get local contribution from their flexible resources. In this paper, we address the flexibility offered by some electric car sharing agents which can serve some reserve capacity to distribution system. A Markov Chain modelling based approach is proposed to support system operator to properly estimate the number of electric vehicles required to be booked in advance as reserve. Underestimation would result in imperfect demand correction, and overestimation would imply extra costs. Using a realistic case under a near future scenario of high PV integration and EV accommodation, we demonstrate the contribution of our approach to this problem of planning or scheduling. Obtained results quantifies the performance of the proposed method in terms of average energy difference based on number of EVs. The results can be used as a basis to decide the appropriate number of EV reservations.