Future increases in Amazonia water stress from CO2 physiology and deforestation

Several different drivers are contributing to climate change within the Amazon basin, including forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols, plant physiology responses to rising CO2, and deforestation. Attribution among these drivers has not been quantified for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate simulations. Here we identify the contribution of CO2 physiology and deforestation to future hydroclimate change in the Amazon basin by combining information from four experiments and eight different Earth system models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Together, forcing from CO2 physiology and deforestation account for about 44% of the projected annual precipitation decline, 48% of surface relative humidity decline and 11% of warming over the Amazon basin by 2100 for SSP3-7.0. Other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 SSP simulations have similar contributions from the two drivers. Insight from our attribution analysis can aid in identifying research priorities aimed at reducing uncertainty in future projections of water availability, carbon dynamics and wildfire risk. It is critical to understand different drivers of regional hydroclimate change and to reduce uncertainty in future projections. This study disentangles the effects of CO2 physiology and deforestation on projected precipitation, surface relative humidity and air temperature in Amazonia using multiple Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 experiments.