The prognostic role of cardiopulmonary exercise testing in obesity

Abstract Aim Poor cardiorespiratory fitness has been suggested to increase the risk of chronic diseases in obesity. We investigated the ability of key variables from cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) to predict all‐cause mortality in an obese cohort. Methods The sample included 469 participants of both sexes (mean age 40 ± 13 years) who underwent a CPET for clinical reasons between 1 March 2009 and 1 December 2023. All‐cause mortality was the prognostic endpoint. A receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to establish optimal cut‐points for CPET variables. Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to determine the association between CPET variables and all‐cause mortality. Results There were 46 deaths during a mean follow‐up period of 69 ± 48 months, resulting in an annual mortality rate of 2%. Despite the sample being made up of mostly women (70%), there were more deaths in men (18 vs. 6%, p < 0.001).The optimal thresholds for discrimination of survival were as follows: (a) peak oxygen uptake (pVO 2 ) ≤16 mL/kg/min; (b) minute ventilation/carbon dioxide production (V E /VCO 2 ) slope ≥31; (c) ventilatory power ≤5.8 mmHg; and (d) circulatory power ≤2980 mmHg/mL O 2 /min. Kaplan–Meier survival plots revealed a significant positive association between lower pVO 2 , circulatory power and ventilatory power values and survival (log‐rank, p < 0.001) and higher mortality for men than women. Adjusted Cox regression models showed that a pVO 2 ≤16 mL/kg/min had a 20‐fold higher risk of mortality when compared with >16 mL/kg/min. Conclusion Given the strong association of VO 2 , ventilatory efficiency, circulatory and ventilatory power with all‐cause mortality, our findings support the notion that poorer cardiorespiratory fitness is associated with a poor prognosis in patients with obesity.