Likelihood-based non-Markovian models from molecular dynamics

Significance The analysis of complex systems with many degrees of freedom generally involves the definition of low-dimensional collective variables more amenable to physical understanding. Their dynamics can be modeled by generalized Langevin equations, whose coefficients have to be estimated from simulations of the initial high-dimensional system. These equations feature a memory kernel describing the mutual influence of the low-dimensional variables and their environment. We introduce and implement an approach where the generalized Langevin equation is designed to maximize the statistical likelihood of the observed data. This provides an efficient way to generate reduced models to study dynamical properties of complex processes such as chemical reactions in solution, conformational changes in biomolecules, or phase transitions in condensed matter systems.