Wetland landscape pattern evolution and prediction in the Yellow River Delta

Abstract Starting from the overall pattern of wetland evolution in the Yellow River Delta, the combination of CA–Markov model and MLP model is studied. Based on the low-medium resolution Landsat data and the field survey data, the evolution trend of wetland landscape pattern in the Yellow River Delta is simulated and predicted by using the proposed models. Taking high resolution (2 m) data in 2016 as the precision verification, the model simulation results are validated. The results show that the area of natural wetlands in the Delta was decreased from 2593.63 km 2 in 1976 to 1639.60 km 2 in 2016, a total area of 954.03 km 2 wasreduced. According to the model simulation, the natural wetland area in 2026 is predicted to be 1252.7 km 2 , the constructed wetland area will be 1265.0 km 2 , and the non-wetland area will be 924.5 km 2 . The constructed wetland in the Yellow River Delta is increasing and spreading into the sea, but the area of natural wetland has been decreasing. If this trend be developed, the national natural wetland conservation target would not be realized. The results are of great significance to the wetland development planning, management and protection in the Yellow River Delta.