Extinction of threatened vertebrates will lead to idiosyncratic changes in functional diversity across the world

Abstract Although species with larger body size and slow pace of life have a higher risk of extinction at a global scale, it is unclear whether this global trend will be consistent across biogeographic realms. Here we measure the functional diversity of terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates in the six terrestrial biogeographic realms and predict their future changes through scenarios mimicking a gradient of extinction risk of threatened species. We show vastly different effects of extinctions on functional diversity between taxonomic groups and realms, ranging from almost no decline to deep functional losses. The Indo-Malay and Palearctic realms are particularly inclined to experience a drastic loss of functional diversity reaching 29 and 31%, respectively. Birds, mammals, and reptiles regionally display a consistent functional diversity loss, while the projected losses of amphibians and freshwater fishes differ across realms. More efficient global conservation policies should consider marked regional losses of functional diversity across the world.