Prediction of spontaneous closure of ventricular septal defect and guidance for clinical follow‐up

To predict the spontaneous closure of ventricular septal defect (VSD) and assist pediatrician to manage VSD children.Between January 2008 and December 2016, 132 children diagnosed with isolated VSD by echocardiography were enrolled. All participating children were followed-up by echocardiography yearly until the closure of VSD or 6 years old. The clinical indicators and echocardiographic parameters of patients were collected. Statistically significant factors were used to establish a Logistic Regression model for predicting spontaneous closure of VSD. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to assess the specificity and sensitivity of Logistic Regression model.Spontaneous closure occurred in 60% of all patients; 57% in perimembranous VSD (p-VSD) and 64% in muscular VSD (m-VSD) patients. Initial diagnosis age, defect size, aneurysms tissue of the ventricular membranous septum (ATVMS), pulmonary hypertension (PH), and left ventricular diastolic dimension (LVDD) were statistically significant. Defect size, ATVMS and LVDD were determined by the Logistic Regression model as representative factor. P-VSD and m-VSD model had areas under the ROC curves 0.854 and 0.898, respectively.We inferred that defect size, ATVMS and LVDD were characteristic and representative predictors for spontaneous closure of VSD. And we summarized the prognostic factors and recommended a follow-up criteria to assist the pediatrician managing VSD children.