Development and external validation of an MRI-based radiomics nomogram for pretreatment prediction for early relapse in osteosarcoma: A retrospective multicenter study

Purpose To develop and externally validate an MR-based radiomics nomogram from retrospective multicenter datasets for pretreatment prediction of early relapse (≤ 1 year) in osteosarcoma after surgical resection. Methods This multicenter study retrospectively enrolled 93 patients (training cohort: 62 patients from four hospitals; validation cohort: 31 patients from two hospitals) with clinicopathologically confirmed osteosarcoma who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy and surgical resection at six hospitals between January 2009 and October 2017. Radiomics features were extracted from contrast-enhanced fat-suppressed T1-weighted (CE FS T1-w) images. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was applied for feature selection and radiomics signature construction. The radiomics nomogram that incorporated the radiomics signature and subjective MRI-assessed candidate predictors was developed to predict early relapse with a multivariate logistic regression model in the training cohort and validated in the external validation cohort. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by its discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. Results The radiomics signature comprised six selected features and achieved favorable prediction efficacy. The radiomics nomogram incorporating the radiomics signature and subjective MRI-assessed candidate predictors (joint invasion and perivascular involvement) from the multicenter datasets achieved better discrimination in the training cohort (C-index：0.907, 95 % CI: 0.838−0.977) and external validation cohort (C-index: 0.811, 95 % CI: 0.653−0.970), and good calibration. Decision curve analysis suggested that the combined nomogram was clinically useful. Conclusion The proposed MRI-based radiomics nomogram could provide a non-invasive tool to predict early relapse of osteosarcoma, which has the potential to improve personalized pretreatment management of osteosarcoma.