Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptive Management Based on Projection Pursuit Model

Xiang, X. and Li, Q., 2020. Water resources vulnerability assessment and adaptive management based on projection pursuit model. In: Yang, Y.; Mi, C.; Zhao, L., and Lam, S. (eds.), Global Topics and New Trends in Coastal Research: Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 103, pp. 431–435. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.As the global climate continues to change, the demand for water resources in human society has been continuously expanding. Water shortages, frequent water pollution and natural disasters have become more and more serious. The issue of water resources security has aroused widespread concern in society. At present, the vulnerability of water resources is the main criterion for measuring the security status of water resources. The vulnerability assessment of water resources mainly studies the current vulnerability of water resources in the region and can reflect the degree of damage to water resources. The adaptive management is to improve the safety of water resources and optimize the future choice of water resources in the study area. Therefore, the assessment of water resources vulnerability combined with adaptive management is an important means to improve the safety of water resources. This article first defines the vulnerability and adaptive management of water resources in the basin based on the existing research results and the particularity of the water resources in the basin, and elaborate their connotations in detail. A water resources vulnerability assessment system based on DPSIR conceptual model is proposed. Secondly, by analyzing the influencing factors of water resources in the river basin, using the projection pursuit model and accelerated genetic algorithm (RAGA), a functional model of water vulnerability assessment based on RAGA projection pursuit was established. Finally, taking Hubei Province as an example, an empirical analysis was conducted to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in Hubei Province, and a strategy for adaptive management of water resources was proposed.